Marché mondial des semi-conducteurs : 1300 Md$ en 2026 ?!
根据Gartner的最新预测，全球半导体市场正经历由人工智能热潮和存储芯片价格飙升驱动的强劲增长。该机构预计，今年市场规模将实现64%的显著增长，并有望在2026年达到约1.3万亿美元。
这一增长主要由两大因素推动：首先是生成式人工智能的快速发展大幅提升了高性能计算芯片的需求；其次是存储芯片领域因供应紧张出现的显著价格上涨，Gartner将这一现象称为“存储通胀”（memflation）。然而，这种由存储芯片主导的价格上涨可能对传统终端市场产生抑制作用。分析师警告称，高价可能抑制消费电子等领域的采购需求，这种影响或将持续至2028年。
尽管短期增长势头强劲，但Gartner同时指出，市场需警惕周期性波动风险。存储芯片的产能扩张与价格调整，以及宏观经济环境对终端需求的影响，都可能在未来几年为半导体行业的增长轨迹带来变数。
The global semiconductor market is projected to reach $1300 billion by 2026, according to new analysis from Gartner. This forecast follows an exceptional growth rate of 64% for the current year, primarily fueled by the artificial intelligence boom and a sharp increase in memory chip prices.
This surge in memory pricing, termed "memflation" by the analyst firm, is a double-edged sword. While it significantly boosts overall market revenue in the short term, Gartner warns it could dampen demand in traditional semiconductor segments. The high costs may constrain purchasing for applications like consumer electronics and certain industrial uses, potentially suppressing growth in these areas until 2028.
The underlying driver remains the massive investment in AI infrastructure, which demands advanced memory and processing chips. This sector's expansion is currently outweighing headwinds in other markets, setting the stage for the industry to cross the $1.3 trillion threshold within two years.
Selon Gartner, le marché mondial des semi-conducteurs devrait connaître une croissance exceptionnelle de 64% cette année, portée par l’essor de l’IA et une forte hausse des prix des mémoires. Mais cette « memflation » pourrait freiner la demande sur les marchés traditionnels jusqu’en 2028, si l’on en croit l’analyste. Gartner n’y va pas de main […]
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Gartner forecasts the global semiconductor market will grow 64% this year, driven by AI demand and high memory prices, but warns this "memflation" could suppress traditional market demand until 2028.
Gartner — Technology research and consulting firm, based in the US.
Strongly track — The forecasted "memflation" presents a major near-term growth vector with significant long-term risk of market distortion.